Thank you for presenting this proposal! As outlined in my delegate statement, I work with Kleros, the entity providing oracle resolution for the Seer One Prediction Market and Futarchy.fi. Given my involvement in helping to craft this proposal alongside the Futarchy.fi team and the VGC committee, I acknowledge a COI and I have chosen that I will vote “Abstain” to help reach out the Quorum (@SeedGov, if this option can be added ;))
While my bias is evident, I firmly believe prediction marketsare not only about gambling, but about offering valuable insights to guide critical decision-making. Historically, financial primitives once dismissed as mere gambling—such as options and futures—have become indispensable tools to provide high quality information, more infos here.
This proposal presents an excellent opportunity for the Velora DAO to experiment with prediction market information for governance purposes at almost no cost (only small and limited IL).
To answer your first question @Sov at Kleros DAO, we have successfully integrated Futarchy markets for several proposals, yielding actionable data for voters. For instance, the proposal referenced in this tweet, highlights a non-consensual vote where the token holder community was split. However, the accompanying Futarchy market indicated a bullish outlook for the PNK token, with a potential positive price impact. This is valuable additional information that could be used by a voter that isn’t sure what to vote for and wants to maximize the value of its holdings.
On the opposite, you can see another proposal that got rejected by the Kleros DAO where Futarchy markets forecasted a negative impact on PNK value, this information was even chosen as a rationale by some voters.
For your second point, we discussed this internally, and while incorporating additional metrics beyond price may be technically feasible in the future, the choice was made to only focus on price for this initial proposal to avoid extra complexity.
Regarding your final point, futarchy markets require sufficient liquidity to function effectively. As noted in this Kleros Forum comment, a liquidity level of $100k was selected for Kleros DAO. To keep the LP requirement as low as possible, we plan to utilize concentrated liquidity for the $50k amount required to Velora DAO, going significantly lower than this would likely be challenging. Also the period of 6 months is here to guarantee there is enough time for interesting milestones or proposals to happen to experiment with Futarchy markets. The risk of going for a shorter period would be to lack data points and being unable to assess the value bring by the experiment.
@kas feel free to add anything or correct me if needed, happy to answer any other questions !